Event

MTN’s full year performance came in mixed, as the Group reported laudable growth in topline but saw earnings wiped out, as foreign exchange losses took center stage. The Group revenue grew by 23% year-on-year with data segment being the highest contributor (FY 2023: 43%; FY 2022: 38%). Voice revenue grew 10% year-on-year, reaching N954.99bn (FY 2022: N864.61bn). The growth is attributed to the expansion of the Group’s mobile subscriber base and increased usage, fueled by customer value management initiatives and enhanced voice offerings. Fintech revenue grew by 2% year-on-year to N82.73bn (FY 2022: N81.38bn).

Bottomline Turns Red as Foreign Exchange Loss Erodes Impressive Topline

The Group’s direct network operating costs grew at a faster pace as the growth surpassed that of revenue, climbing 43% year-on-year to N650.50bn (FY 2022: N456.25bn). Furthermore, operating expenses rose by 27% year-on-year to N615.82bn (FY 2022: N485.65bn). The Group attributed the increase to the combined adverse effects of the Naira devaluation, higher general inflationary pressures, elevated energy costs, and the introduction of the 2023 Finance Act VAT on tower leases. Nevertheless, EBITDA grew by 12% year-on-year to N1.20trn from N1.07trn in FY 2022. However, EBITDA margin shrunk.

Outlook

The ongoing expansion of the Group’s 4G and 5G spectrum will drive significant growth in data subscribers over the medium to long term, as customers enjoy enhanced satisfaction when accessing and sharing content online. Additionally, anticipated increase in data tariffs should bolster data revenue. Therefore, we project a 32% growth in data revenue to N1.41trn in 2024, up from the N1.07trn recorded in 2023. Furthermore, we anticipate that the contribution of data revenue to overall revenue will improve to 47%, compared to 43% in 2023.

Valuation

We downgraded our fair value down to N257.58 from N311.06, reflecting the decline in the Group’s bottom-line. Consequently, we revised our recommendation on the stock to HOLD. We arrived at this target price using a combination of Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation methods.

Please follow the link “MTN Nigeria Plc FY 2023 – Prospects and Earning Capacity Optimistic Despite Depletion of Shareholders’ Fund” to view the whole report.

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