The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the rebased GDP data with a revised base year of 2019 from previously used 2010. According to the NBS, using 2019 as the base year was due to the relative stability of the economy during this period.  The rebased data showed upward revisions in nominal GDP, with 2024 GDP now estimated to be N372.82 trillion.

Real GDP Grew by 3.13% in Q1 2025.

Following the rebasing exercise, the previous quarterly GDP estimates were adjusted to align the old series to the new rebased estimates. Against this back drop, the NBS reported a real GDP growth of 3.13% year-on-year for Q1 2025, and while this marked an increase from the 2.27% recorded in Q1 2024, it is a pullback from the 3.76% growth reported for Q4 2024. The quarterly moderation mirrors the subdued growth in both the non-oil and oil sectors.

 Oil Sector

Nigeria’s oil production picked up steam in Q1 2025, reaching an average daily crude oil production of 1.62 million barrels per day (mbpd) as reported by the NBS. This reflects an improvement from 1.54 mbpd in Q4 2024 and 1.57 mbpd in Q1 2024, underscoring the impact of intensified government and industry-led interventions aimed at curbing crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism. Despite the improvement in oil production, the growth impact on the sector’s real GDP was limited.

Non-Oil Sector

Driven by an improved macroeconomic condition on a year-on-year basis, and broader coverage of economic activities, the non-oil sector grew by 3.19% in Q1 2025, up from the 2.17% growth recorded in Q1 2024. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the Q1 2025 was a moderation from the 3.80% recorded in Q4 2024.

The Services sector remained the largest contributor to the sector’s GDP in Q1 2025, with a growth of 4.33% year-on-year (vs Q4 2024: 4.75%, Q1 2024: 4.06%).

The Industries sector grew by 3.42% in Q1 2025, an increase from 2.49% in Q4 2024 and 2.35% in Q1 2024. At the heart of this growth was the Manufacturing sector, which accounts for 50% of the sector’s total output.

The Agriculture sector’s growth was more subdued, with a real GDP growth of 0.07% in Q1 2025. Although, this is a massive slowdown from 2.54% in Q4 2024, it reflects a recovery from the 1.79% contraction recorded in Q1 2024.

Outlook

We are optimistic about the Oil sector’s prospects for the rest of the year, as we expect the sustained clampdown on crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism to continue driving incremental oil production gains. Additionally, increased investment by new onshore and shallow water asset holders and upstream activities bodes well for the oil sector.

The Non-oil sector is also looking up, as growth prospects remain supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions. The relative stability in the foreign exchange market, alongside moderating inflation is expected to translate into improved consumer purchasing power in near term. As market price adjusts to better reflect easing inflationary pressure, we anticipate firmer household demand, which should lend continued support to non-oil sector performance.

Please follow the link “Q1 2025 GDP Report – Data Rebased and Poised for Upsides” to view the whole report.