Guinness Nigeria Plc Q4 2025 – Solidifying Its Turnaround as FX Pressures Ease

Event

Guinness Nigeria Plc (“the Group”) delivered yet another strong performance in Q4 2025. Operating profit and profit after tax rose to N18.16 billion and N9.48 billion respectively, up 467% and 37% from N3.21 billion and N6.90 billion in Q4 2024. The improvement reflects sustained pricing power, volume resilience across key categories, and tighter cost control. The market reacted strongly to the earnings, with the stock gaining 109% in Q3 2025 following the release. Nevertheless, we maintain a HOLD rating with a revised fair value of N198.62 (previously N109.90). At the current price of N183.75, we project a total return of 11% including a 3% dividend yield.

Outlook

Guinness Nigeria appears set to sustain its profitability momentum through the remaining six months of the extended 18-month financial period ending December 2025. The Group’s performance will continue to benefit from stable pricing and effective cost control. Seasonal demand in the final quarter of 2025 should further support topline performance, while the annual sourcing of sorghum and improved energy efficiency are expected to help maintain current margin levels. The Group’s disciplined approach to cost management and investment in brand visibility should also underpin earnings stability through the remainder of the period.

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