Highlights

Headline Inflation accelerated further in November 2022, with the figure printing 21.47% year-on-year (October 2022: 21.09%) – the tenth consecutive upward trend.

The sub-components of inflation, Core Inflation and Food Inflation rose to 18.24% YoY (October 2022: 17.76%) and 24.13% YoY (October 2022: 23.72%), respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, Headline Inflation rose to 1.39% in November 2022 from 1.24% in October 2022. In the same vein, Food Inflation rose to 1.40% in November 2022 from 1.23% in October 2022, while Core Inflation rose in November 2022 to 1.67% from 0.93% in October 2022.

Analysis

Interestingly, the month-on-month inflation rise was in line with our last report outlook. We attribute the month-on-month rise in food inflation to the pass-through effect of flooding in major parts of the country which led to constrained food supply and other economic activities. The rising flood ravaged and submerged most crop produces, farm settlements, livestock and seedling stores which all culminated in food shortage crisis.

Outlook

In the following month, we expect Headline Inflation to maintain its upward trend on the back of poor harvest season owing to the flood. We expect Core Inflation to moderate in the subsequent months, as we expect the regulatory authorities to solve the supply bottlenecks of PMS. In all, we expect Headline Inflation of 21.75% in December 2022. Based on our expected December 2022 reading, the 12-month inflation average for 2022 is expected to print 18.80%.

Please follow the link ” November 2022 Inflation – The Full Impact Of Flooding Drives Prices Upwards” to view the full report.