Highlights

Contrary to our expectation of a sustained uptick in Headline inflation, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed moderation. Headline inflation printed at 23.71% in April 2025, down from 24.23% in March 2025, reflecting a 52 basis point moderation. On a month-on-month basis, the easing was even more pronounced, as Headline inflation declined from 3.90% in March to 1.86% in April.

Food Inflation, the primary driver of the moderation, showed notable improvement. On a year-on-year basis, food inflation fell to 21.26% in April, down 53 basis points from 21.79% in March. Food inflation printed at 2.06% in April, marking a 12-basis point decline from 2.18% recorded in March.

Despite a 4.27% depreciation in the Naira, which averaged N1,595/$ in April, compared to N1,526/$ in March, Core inflation still showed significant moderation. Year-on-year, core inflation declined to 23.39%, easing by 104 basis points from 24.43% in March, while month-on-month figures dropped from 3.73% in March to 1.34% in April.

Outlook

The outlook leans cautiously optimistic. The recent drop in fuel prices, driven by the reinstated crude-for-Naira policy, could help sustain the disinflation trend in the near term. If maintained, this could continue to ease logistics, food, and transport costs, reinforcing the slowdown in both food and core inflation.

Policy Expectation

With inflation showing mixed signals in the first four months of 2025, we expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain a cautious stance at its May 19–20 meeting.

Click here, “April 2025 – A Pause in the Climb”, to view the full report.