Highlights

Contrary to our projection of Headline Inflation reaching 34.76% in April 2024, due to the expected impact of the new electricity tariff and other existing bottlenecks, data released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Headline Inflation climbed by only 49 basis points year-on-year to 33.69% in April 2024 (March 2024: 33.20%). This increase was driven by both Food Inflation and Core Inflation which reached 40.53% and  26.84% respectively. 

Also, Headline Inflation sustained its downward month-on-month trend to 2.29% in April 2024 (March 2024: 3.02%). This decline was occasioned by month-on-month contraction in Food Inflation to 2.50% and Core Inflation to 2.20% in April 2024.

Outlook

So far in May 2024, the Naira has depreciated by 5% in the NAFEM market and 18% in parallel market as at May 15, 2024. This depreciation is poised to halt the month-on-month decline, as the ripple effect of Naira depreciation negatively impact prices of goods. Furthermore, we anticipate the reduction of local food supply as the second quarter is characterised by planting season. Overall, we see legroom for an increase in month-on-month Inflation reading for May 2024.  Our projection for May 2024 Headline Inflation is 34.10%

Policy Expectation

While the CBN Governor acknowledged that Food Inflation, which is the primary driver of Inflation is beyond his team’s direct control, he reiterated that the monetary committee would continue to take necessary measures to rein in the rising inflation. Hence, at the next MPC meeting which is slated for May 20th – 21st, 2024, we expect the committee to further increase the rate by 50 – 100 basis points.

Click here “April 2024 Inflation – Month-on-Month Decline Sustained” to view the full report.