Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that Nigeria’s economy continued its growth trajectory in Q3 2024, as real GDP grew by 3.46%. This marks a 92-basis point improvement from the 2.54% recorded in Q3 2023 and a 27-basis point rise from the 3.19% reported in Q2 2024.

Oil Sector

The Oil sector achieved a 5.17% year-on-year real GDP growth in Q3 2024, marking a recovery from the -0.85% reported in Q3 2023. However, the growth represents the sector’s slowest expansion in 2024, trailing behind the 10.15% and 5.70% growth rates recorded in Q2 2024 and Q1 2024, respectively.

Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector experienced strong growth, sprinting forward despite bottlenecks facing the economy. Its real GDP increased by 3.37% year-on-year in Q3 2024, a significant rise compared to 2.75% in Q3 2023 and 2.80% in Q2 2024. This growth was mainly fueled by the expansion of the service sector.

Outlook

The non-oil sector exceeded our expectations, as we had initially anticipated that challenges in the Manufacturing and Agricultural sectors would offset potential gains in the Services sector. Moving forward, we expect the sector to remain resilient throughout the year, with the Services sector continuing to be the primary driver of growth.

For the Oil sector, our projection of sustained lower-than-budgeted oil production of 1.78mbpd suggests that significant output growth for the sector is unlikely for the rest of the year. However, the sector is still expected to maintain positive growth. Overall, we have revised our forecast for FY 2024 real GDP growth to 3.39%, up from the previous estimate of 3.31%

Please follow the link “Q3 2024 GDP Report – Non-Oil Sector Shows Resilience” to view the whole report.