Highlights

In line with our projection of a sustained upward trajectory in Headline Inflation in November 2024, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Headline Inflation printed at 34.60% in November 2024. This represents a 72 basis points increase from the 33.88% recorded in October 2024, however, it is slightly below our projection of 34.72%. On a month-on-month basis, Headline Inflation remained stable at 2.64% (October 2024: 2.64%).

Food Inflation remained the primary driver of the surge increasing by 77 basis points to 39.93% (October 2024: 39.16%). Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, Food Inflation recorded a 5 basis points uptick, reaching 2.98% (October 2024: 2.94%).

In contrast, Core Inflation moderated to 1.83% on a month-on-month basis, representing a 30 basis points decline from 2.14% reported in October 2024. However, on a year-on-year basis, the Core Inflation maintained its upward trajectory, increasing to 28.75% (October 2024: 28.37%).

Outlook

Notwithstanding the notable appreciation of the Naira against the Dollar so far in December 2024, we are cautious about anticipating a sustained month-on-month moderation in the Core Inflation, as the expectation of the increased demand in the festive season is poised to drive up the prices of goods and services. Overall, our projection for December 2024 Headline Inflation is 35.12%.

Click here “November 2024 Inflation – Poised to End the Year with a Record High” to view the full report.