Event

In Q3 2023, Dangote Cement (“the Group”) reported an impressive revenue growth of 53% year-on-year to N563.77bn from N369.22bn in Q3 2022. The Nigerian region contributed 56% to revenue (Q1 2023: 69%, Q2 2023: 62%), while the Pan-African region contributed 44% ((Q1 2023: 31%, Q2 2023: 38%).

The Nigerian operation recorded another volume decline – this is the third consecutive quarterly decline in 2023. Historically, the third quarter is usually characterised by heavy rainfall, hence, the Group experience lower patronage.

The Pan-African operations sustained its positive performance as predicted in our last earnings report, which was chiefly supported by operations in the newly commissioned Ghana plant and capacity optimisation in Senegal, Ethiopia, and Cameroon. As a result, volume increased by 22% year-on-year to 3.07 million metric tons (MMT) with revenue increasing significantly by 143% year-on-year to N251.85bn.

Outlook

Following improved performance in Q3 2023, we revised our revenue projection yet again to N2.17 trillion (previously N1.90 trillion). We expect revenue growth to be delivered through a combination of elevated cement prices and increased volumes as promotional campaigns have commenced across the country.

Overall, our fair value estimate for the stock is N351.73. At the current market price, the stock trades at 12.65x to our estimated EPS – versus a 13.90x justified P/E. By implication, we see a +10% price return. In addition to an estimated 7% dividend yield, the stock’s total return stands at +17%. We retain our HOLD recommendation.

Please follow the link “Dangote Cement Plc Q3 2023 – Pan-Africa Operations Drives Overall Performance” to view the whole report.

Thank you.