The global economy was generally lethargic owing to the impact of restrictive monetary policies, tightened financial conditions as well as reduced levels of global production and consumption.

The US economy displayed a surprisingly strong performance, however, the weak economic standing of China and Europe, coupled with the geopolitical tension in the middle-east dampened FY 2023 growth prospect. 

The domestic economy was confronted with myriad of challenges during the year as it signaled the end and the beginning of two administrations. The year witnessed fiercely contested general elections, acute cash crunch, currency devaluation leading the Naira to unprecedented lows, fuel subsidy removal and inflation soaring to multi-year highs as purchasing power of household shrinks.

Surprisingly, the stock market demonstrated resilience as the local bourse posted positive return despite the prevailing macro-economic headwinds.

We do not see material decline in Headline Inflation in the near term. We project a GDP growth rate of 3.02% for Nigeria for FY 2024, and we believe that budget deficit will widen above N13 trillion, as we expect a lower than estimated revenue for the period. We expect FG to fund most of the budget deficit locally. Pressures in the FX market are expected to be mildly relieved through efforts by the CBN to clear back logs and improve liquidity.

In the financial markets, yields in the fixed income market are expected to rise in the first half of year due to efforts to encourage investment and reduce negative real return. Lastly, we project moderate positive returns in the equities market.

Please follow the link “2024 Economic Outlook – Navigating Through the Storm of Economic Turmoil” to view the full report.

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