Analysis

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released September 2023 inflation yesterday. According to the Bureau, the Headline Inflation advanced by 92 basis points on a year-on-year basis to 26.72% (August 2023: 25.80%). However, on a month-on-month basis, the Headline Inflation declined to 2.10% (August 2023: 3.18%).

Core Inflation (which measures All Items less Farm Produce and Energy) inched higher by 69 basis points to 21.84% on a year-on-year basis in September 2023 (August 2023: 21.15%). Furthermore, it rose on a month-on-month basis to 2.22% (August 2023: 2.18%).

Food Inflation rose by 130 basis points to 30.64% year-on-year in September 2023 (August 2023: 25.80%). Conversely, it declined on a month-on-month basis to 2.10% (August 2023: 3.18%).

Outlook

Barring any exogenous shock, we expect to see a sustained declining month-on-month trend in the remaining months of the year, as we expect further stability in price levels in the economy. Although we expect the year-on-year inflation to trend upwards.

Click here “September 2023 Inflation – Month-on-Month Decline Suggests Easing Price Pressures” to view the full report.