Earnings Update: MTN Nigeria Plc Q1 2025 – Setting the Pace for a Strong Fiscal Year.

Event

MTN Nigeria (“the Group”) started the year with a stellar performance, surpassing the one trillion revenue milestone for the first time ever in a single quarter. Specifically, Q1 2025 revenue grew by 41% year-on-year to N1.06 trillion (Q1 2024: 752.98 billion).

While the NCC finally approved tariff adjustment for telecommunication operators in Q1 2025 after years of pricing stagnation, management attributed the revenue growth primarily to increased demand for services and disciplined commercial execution. Management highlighted that the phased implementation of the new tariff structure commenced in mid-February 2025 across the data and voice bundles, with the bulk of the adjustment becoming effective in March 2025. As a result, the full financial impact of the tariff adjustment was only partially reflected in the Q1 2025 performance, with further impact expected in subsequent quarters.

Outlook

Given the stock’s impressive Q1 2025 performance, we revised our fair value estimate upward to N395.47 (previously: N338.57), reflecting our expectation of sustained revenue growth as the full impact of the tariff hike becomes more pronounced, and also sustained operational efficiency.

However, despite this upward revision, our recommendation for the stock is now a HOLD (previously: BUY).

Please follow the link “MTN Nigeria Plc Q1 2025 – Setting the Pace for a Strong Fiscal Year” to view the whole report.

Thank you.